In 2007 Canadians watched as the real estate bubble burst in the United States; can a financial crisis in Canada be triggered this way? We believed then and continue to believe now that a financial crisis in Canada can’t happen because Canada enjoys an extremely well regulated financial system. But, should we really be secure in this belief or will rising real estate prices trigger a financial crisis in Canada? Many analysts are concerned and for good reason:
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- 7.5% of the Canadian workforce is in the construction industry, while 7% of the Canadian economy is based on residential construction – both record highs
- The unemployment rate rose from 6.9% to 7.2%
- The Canadian debt-to-income ratio has soared to a record 164%, above levels experienced in the U.S. before the financial crisis
A housing bust could potentially lead to an increase in unemployment which could trigger a financial crisis in Canada. The Canadian Bankers Association reports that 70% of all household debt in Canada is made up of residential mortgage debt. According to Amna Asaf, an economist with the macro research firm Capital Economics, “Even a modest uptick in mortgage rates will translate into much higher homeownership costs, easily outpacing any expected increase in household incomes. This will price out some prospective home buyers, reinforcing the drop back in existing home sales that is already under way.” This is the same dynamic that triggered the bust of the U.S. real estate bubble in 2007. Although Canada’s strict housing regulations will likely cushion the blow to a degree, it doesn’t grant us immunity from a financial crisis in Canada.
There is a growing belief that housing is an investment that can only increase in value, which of course is fueled by a plethora of free real estate seminars and television shows dedicated to showing you how to make money with real estate – flipping properties, income properties, etc. However, making money with these types of ventures is predicated on the myth that the housing market won’t suffer a decline in value. Either a soft real estate market, or worse, a financial crisis in Canada, when you are ready to sell your house, will produce declining values of varying degrees.
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